Supernatural Selection by H.M. Dixon III
Supernatural Selection
"That brings me to the fourth kind of attitude toward ideas, and that is that the problem is not what is possible. That's not the problem. The problem is what is probable, what is happening. It is impossible that everything that is possible is happening." - Richard P. Feynman, The Meaning of It All, p. 77.
When used in certain contexts, the number 4.6 billion seems to be a rather large number. Today, if you had $4.6 billion you would be considered an extraordinarily wealthy person. If you lived in a city which inhabited 4.6 billion people you would almost have the entire current human population living in close proximity. If you traveled a lot and accumulated 4.6 billion miles of frequent flier mileage you would have traveled a distance exceeding that of 20 round trips to and from our sun. And, perhaps the dimension which most magnifies this number from a human perspective is time. 4.6 billion years seems to be a long time when compared to our own life expectancy. For example, if we deduct our own life expectancy on the order of 100 years from 4.6 billion years, the subtraction only alters the original amount by 2.5*10^-6%.
Although 4.6 billion seems like a large number when associated with certain standards for measuring currency, distance and human life expectancy, it is not, however, a large number in every context in which we apply numbers as a scale of measurement. In fact, it begins to appear as an extremely small number when we begin to examine the fundamental structure of life itself with all of its many complex components and then consider an accidental, chance-driven construction of it.
Let us turn to the theory of probability for some insight into whether it is "reasonable" to conclude that life formed by accident. If we calculate the number of possible combinations that an average sized protein chain (present in simple bacteria cells) of 200 amino acids in length from the 20 unique amino acids that are found in nature we get,
20^200 = 10^260
where 20^x = 10^1.3x. To gauge the relative size of this number, consider that the total number of atoms in the universe was calculated to be ~ 10^80 by Sir Arthur Eddington whose work has been well accepted by the scientific community (i.e. Einstein among others).
Since most people would have to conclude that some type of process is responsible for the creation and production of life, let us assume the most un-Godly process imaginable, a random, non-intelligent, non-predictable one; then we can evaluate the probabilistic nature of such a process and attempt to draw some reasonable conclusions.
Let us suppose that we had a random process that could generate all possible combinations of a 200 length protein chain and that we only have a finite time in which to do so, say 4.6 billion years. The necessary reaction rate is then calculated to be,
10^260 combinations / 1.45*10^17 sec,
or
7*10^242 combinations/sec.
This value of 7*10^242 combinations/sec represents the necessary reaction rate in order to ensure that a random, non-redundant process could generate a particular protein chain (200 amino acids in length with 20 unique amino acids) from all possible combinations within a time span of 4.6 billion years.
Man's Best Effort:
One might use the counter-argument that the proposed reaction rate of 7*10^242 combinations/sec can be explained through the result of some natural occurring process and hence life could have resulted through natural "unguided" events. However, this claim and even this method of thought seems to stray from reason and the scientific method of thought which must consider first of all there is no evidence today that suggests such a process exists and, secondly, that this reaction rate is completely beyond mankind's ability to generate and/or measure.
For example, one of the fastest supercomputers in the world, if not the fastest, is the CrayT3E (now owned by Silicon Graphics, Inc.). The CrayT3E has a processing rate of 2.4 teraflops (2.4*10^12 operations/sec). Even if the CrayT3E could process a new 200 length protein chain every operation, it would take 4*10^247 seconds or 1.3*10^240 years to go through all of the possible combinations for just one protein chain. Clearly, we see that man's intelligence for even simulating such a reaction rate using the best means at his disposal is ridiculously inadequate.
Conclusion:
It is unreasonable to conclude that a random or accidental process is responsible for the creation of a single protein chain needed for fundamental cell operation.
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Other points of consideration:
* thousands of protein chains are necessary for the simplest living cell and only a very small percentage of all the possible combinations of these protein chains are used.
* 4.6 billion years is a well cited time for the age of the earth but the time between when the actual conditions for life on earth were met and when life began is considerably less.
* This discussion maintains the assumption that this "random" process can generate amino acid chains which are also covalently bonded in order to create viable proteins that can be used by a living cell.
* "It is no valid objection that science as yet throws no light on the far higher problem of the essence or origin of life." - Charles Darwin, Origin of Species, p. 636. Darwin never claimed to explain the origin of life itself. Unfortunately, it's not even a topic that he could have made a scientific evaluation on by today's standards. Scientists were not able to view inside the cell until the invention of the electron microscope long after Darwin's death. As a result Darwin did not have an opportunity to appreciate and contemplate the complexities involved with basic cell construction, operation and its interaction with other cells in biological systems.
* Sir Arthur Stanley Eddington (1882-1944): professor of astronomy at Cambridge, helped clarify relativity (making significant mathematical contributions), most important work was on the evolution and constitution of stars, was knighted in 1930, author of Stars and Atoms, The Internal Constitution of the Stars and The Nature of the Physical World.
